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Sentiment: Deja Cliff (Disconnect Over Fiscal Crisis is Worldwide)

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Published on: December 19, 2012

Blah blah Fiscal Cliff blah. Blah blah blahdy blah Cliff. Cliff blah blah republicans blah democrats blah blah blah blah. Blah blah blah blah, blah blah, blah blah blah blah blah, blah blah, Cliff. Blah blah blah blah, blah blahdy blah…. Blah.

Meanwhile in Europe: The only data point confirms what everyone knows – reality sucks, hope surges. As usual.

German Ifo business confidence rises to 102.4 from 101.4, on expected rise of 102. Why the rise? Because forward expectations spike from 96.4 to 97.9. As for the “current assessment”? Why down of course from 108.1 to 107.1, on expectations of 108.0. Apparently in the long run everyone will either be dead, or live in an economic utopia. Just don’t opt for the Buddhist route.

More on this from Vampire Squid:

The Ifo index increased for the second time as corporates become more optimistic about the medium-term outlook. The assessment of the current conditions has weakened at the same time. Together with the flash PMIs, the December Ifo is consistent with our view that German GDP will decline moderately in Q4 before we see a stabilisation at the beginning of the year and a further, modest acceleration during the course of the year.

The Ifo index rose further in December to a level of 102.4 after 101.4 in November and 100.0 in October. Business expectations rose to 97.9 after 95.2 (their highest reading since May), while business conditions erased the improvement seen in November, sliding back to their October reading (107.1 after 108.1).

Looking at the different sectors, business confidence improved in the manufacturing and construction sector, but declined in the wholesale and retail sector.

A less cynical recap of events from DB’s Jim Reid:

With only six more sleeps until Christmas, markets continue to be in a festive mood helped by increasing optimism of a last-minute deal coming together in Washington. Briefly recapping the price action yesterday, equities finished strongly (S&P500 up 1.15%), credit gapped tighter (Xover-16bps) and US treasury yields continued to sell off with the 10yr UST yield adding 5bp to close at 1.81%, and threatening to break through the
1.60% to 1.80% trading range that has held since August. The optimism seems is adding pressure to the precious metals complex – gold lost $27/oz yesterday to close at its lowest level since the 30th August ($1671/oz).

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