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Everything — Except the Polls — Points to a Romney Landslide

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Published on: November 5, 2012

RUSH:  Well, the Drive-Bys are all excited because Romney has announced he’s going back to Ohio tomorrow.  On Election Day, Romney is going to Ohio, and the Drive-Bys are trying to interpret that as meaning it’s slipping away.  Romney has to head back into Ohio on Election Day because it’s slipping away.  The Drive-Bys are all excited by their own polling data.

My friends, I’ve been looking at all the data that you have been looking at.  I’ve been trying to separate feelings from thoughts and come up with some sort of an educated prognostication.  You know, common sense tells me this election isn’t gonna be close and shouldn’t be.  And yet every poll, every single poll, has this race tied.  Obama’s up one, down one, tied, doesn’t matter where you go, ’til you get into the internals, then it gets really confusing or it doesn’t make any sense.

I’m just gonna be honest with you, for the longest time — and you people that have been regular listeners know this — I have said that as we get down to the election, the polls are gonna reflect what’s really gonna happen because the pollsters want to get it right for the future.  That has not happened.  It has not happened.  There’s not one poll that gives either candidate an edge, not one pollster is willing to stick his neck out here.  They’re all saying that this is tied, every which way from Sunday, at least in the overall popular vote, national surveys.  Now, when you get into the internals it looks a little odd, and we’re gonna do that here at the beginning.

There’s also something that, I guarantee you if a football game had a different outcome yesterday, you would be hearing nothing but this today.  But since the Washington Redskins lost at home on a game before the election, it means, what is it,18 of the last 19 elections, that the out-of-power party wins.  Honest, it’s called the Redskins Rule, and it’s so well known you can look it up on Wikipedia.  In the 18 presidential elections that have taken place since the Redskins moved to Washington in 1937, 17 have been predicted by the team’s performance at its final home game prior to the election.

If the Redskins win at home, the incumbent party wins the presidential race, 17 out of 18 times going back to 1940.  If the Redskins lose at home, the challenger prevails.  Well, the Redskins lost to the Carolina Panthers.  That means Romney wins.  I guarantee you, if the Redskins had won the game, that’s all you would be seeing on the media today.  I guarantee you.  You can’t find it anywhere.  It’s only because I know the Redskins Rule that I was looking this up, and I did see a little blurb in one of the pregame shows before the football game started yesterday.  I just saw a tail end of the blurb and I wasn’t sure so I went and looked it up, and that is what it is.

Now, for example, let’s look at the latest CNN poll, the final CNN national poll.  It has the race tied at 49.  By the way, in none of these national polls is Barack Obama at 50, and they keep telling us, they’ve told us for decades, for years, for months, for weeks, that an incumbent who doesn’t get to 50 is in big trouble, and that traditionally has been true.  Here are the internals of the CNN poll.  The sample is Democrat plus 11.  The Democrat turnout margin in 2008 was plus seven.  They’re saying it’s going to be plus 11 Democrats tomorrow in this poll.  In 2004 and 2010, it was even, the Democrats and Republicans were evenly split.  In addition to all of this, in addition to a Democrat sample of plus 11, Romney is up 22 points with independents.

So I, as a standard, ordinary, average guy, look at this, this doesn’t make any sense, because you look at all the conventional wisdom. They tell you whoever wins independents wins elections.  Independents are how you define a swing state, right?  A swing state is where the independents determine the outcome, correct?  That’s why so many states are now swing states, because the independents are up for grabs. So Romney’s winning the independents in every poll, double digits for the most part.  So you have a CNN national poll where they’re tied at 49, Romney up 22 with independents, the sample is Democrat plus 11 — by the way, none of these polls factor 2010.  The reason they don’t factor 2010 is because it wasn’t a presidential race and therefore you cannot compare turnout in any way, shape, manner, or form.

I so profoundly disagree with that but simply in common sense, not scientifically.  I’m not a pollster, I’m just a commonsense observer.  I look at what caused the massive 2010 Republican turnout and then I ask myself, has anything changed since 2010?  Yeah, it’s gotten worse.  The enthusiasm that got people out in 2010 I’m seeing at every Mitt Romney rally.  I’m seeing Bill Clinton going into places they ought not have to go.  Colin Powell, I guess, ladies and gentlemen, Colin Powell is Obama’s firewall in Pennsylvania.  Those are the ads that Obama’s running in Pennsylvania today.  Colin Powell, the titular head of the Republican Party.  You’ve got Bill Clinton going to all of these places.  You’ve got Bruce Springsteen playing concerts in all these places.  You got everybody but Obama out there trying to gender up some sort of enthusiasm for him.

Meanwhile, Romney’s drawing crowds of 20,000, 25,000, 30,000, 15,000.  The enthusiasm that we all saw in 2010 is there.  The same issues that existed in 2010 exist today.  There hasn’t been anything that’s gotten better.  There hasn’t been one change in the nation’s direction that would cause people who were fit to be tied in 2010 to say, “You know what? I’m glad I did that, but everything’s okay now. At least we’re heading the right direction now, think I’m gonna go back to my traditional voting pattern.”  That hasn’t happened.  Now, that’s just common sense.  That’s simply my common sense.  I’ve got nothing scientific to back me up on this.  All I know is that maybe two pollsters, and one of them is Dick Morris, bothers to factor 2010 into any of this.  They’re all doing 2008.

So just to review, CNN national poll tied 49, Romney plus 22 with independents, a sample of Democrat plus 11.  Now, the way Karl Rove would look at that or Dick Morris, well, you’re not gonna have Democrats plus 11.  You might have Democrats plus two if that.  So that’s a swing of nine points.  Romney up 22 with independents.  Don’t know how you factor that in.  But they would tell you that this poll 49-49 is actually gonna be 54-46 Romney.  That’s what they would tell you the CNN poll actually means.

But then I go back to: “Why would CNN put a poll out…? If it’s that easy to figure out this poll is wrong, why would they do it?” Well, the answer is: “Well, they’re in the tank for Obama and they want to do anything they can to help.” Yeah, I understand that. “And, Rush, they don’t care about after the election. They’ll sweep it under the rug and they’ll just say, well, they were surprised by turnout; that their poll was actually correct.

“Rush, there’s a built-in fix for this. They just blame it on their turnout model, not on their polling. They just say that if they’d had the turnout right, they would have been able to predict it. They are covered no matter what they do towards the end.” So that kind of thinking takes you to the point: Are they still trying to impact the results of the election? Do you believe that? (interruption) Do you believe that the polling units that are tied to networks or universities are still trying to impact the outcome?

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