We Win They Lose archive
Date : August 2012

Carville-Greenberg Poll Panics Dems: Romney Leads Big Among Independents

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Published on: August 31, 2012
RUSH: This has not been reported on much. I haven’t seen it anywhere. I got a secret e-mail yesterday afternoon. Stan Greenberg and James Carville have this company. It’s called Democracy Corps, and they go out there and they do polling. And you recall that it was Carville who warned Obama some months ago, “Don’t go out there and talk about the economy, especially an economy in recovery. Don’t go out there and try to convince people that we’re roaring back, because we’re not. And they know it because they’re living it.”

He warned Obama: Stay away from it.

Well, guess what? Carville and Greenberg have just released a new poll, and it’s devastating for Obama. Among independents — the precious, eagerly sought, oh-God-everybody-loves-them independents — Romney leads Obama (this is a poll this week) by 15 points, 53 to 38 in independents. This is remarkable. This is a Stan Greenberg and James Carville poll. “Independents disapprove of Obama’s job performance 56 to 40%. And when looking at intensity, disapproval is greater than two to one, 47 to 20%.”

It is devastating.

This is James Carville’s own poll.

Now, according to exit polling, Obama won a majority of independents in 2008. It was 52 to 44, an eight-point majority in the election of 2000, according to exit polls. “His cratering of support among swing voters reflected in this Carville poll,” and in many others, “is the equivalent of losing more than 5.3 million independent voters from his 2008 total.” This is undoubtedly the kind of polling data they have in the White House, the often-referred-to “internals,” meaning the real stuff.

The candidates have to know the truth.

They do not put out polls to try to affect news or shape opinion.

They have to deal in Realville when it comes to polls. We never see the polls the candidates do. We never do. All we see are the polls from the news networks and other polling organizations. Of course, they have their own agendas. But the candidate polls, or in this case the White House polls? This is as close as we’re ever gonna get to seeing one: The Carville and Greenberg poll. People who live and die, A, with polls; and then live and die, the independent vote, to right now to see Obama down 15 points?

This was before the convention. I got this yesterday. And the convention had not been going on long enough to have been a large factor. Now, here’s why. Here’s why the deficit: “President Obama’s government-centered policies created the chasm that he now faces with independents, and any likability advantage that he holds has been unable to bridge the ideology divide.” So his likability is not making up for the chasm created with independents over big government.

The independents are rejecting big government, government-centric policies, according to a poll from Carville and Greenberg. So I’m sure this is what they’ve got in the White House, and this is why they’re panicked. And it’s why they’ve been panicked for a while, and the “likability” isn’t making up for it. Now, it’s fascinating. Folks, there’s a story that, without me putting these two things together, you might not be able to assemble in the proper context.

Our old buddy Jim Rutenberg at the New York Times, who is one of maybe three people there in the last 24 years who has written fairly of me. That’s why I call him “our old buddy.” (It’s hurt him a little bit. But we stick with it.) “Emotional Ties to Obama May be Central to the Election.” Now, remember what we just heard: Independents prefer Romney by 15 over Obama, from a Stan Greenberg/James Carville poll. The reason: The independents don’t like big government and government-centric policies of Obama, and his likability is not bridging the gap.

Ergo, New York Times: “Through three nights of gauzy videos, sentimental testimonials, and final his own speech to the nation, Mitt Romney worked hard to show he has a heart. But he still needs to tackle the much harder job of convincing those Americans who so emotionally invested their hearts in Obama four years ago that it’s time to accept that his presidency did not work.” Now, the point of Rutenberg’s piece here is the emotional ties to Obama make it hard for people to accept that he is a failure as a president.

That’s their hope.

That’s what they’re clinging to here.

That’s what this means. His presidency is a failure. Everybody it knows. But there was so much hope, and there was so much emotion tied to Obama. So much invested! (Ohhhh, we love the guy and he’s such a fresh face! He’s the first black president. We wanted him to succeed so bad!) And the theory is that the tie, that the strength of that emotional bond is such that not even a failed presidency can break it. But — but! — we go to Carville-Greenberg poll. Uh-oh, contradictory! The emotional tie is not enough to keep the independents from disapproving of Obama by 15 points.

So my take is Greenberg-Carville comes first, they put their information out, this is yesterday. The next day, today, we get this story in the New York Times basically refuting it, that the emotional ties of Obama voters who now acknowledge he’s a failure as a president will make it tough for them to abandon him. And in the Greenberg-Carville poll they already have. Why are you frowning? Am I not making this… (interruption) Good. I thought you were frowning in there ’cause you didn’t understand what I was saying, and I don’t know how much clearer I can make this.

So what’s your question? What are they gonna do to change the emotional tie? No. Keep their people from getting depressed. Keep their people from getting dispirited. Give ‘em something to hold onto. They’re not try to change reality; they’re trying to blunt reality. They’re trying to tell people, “Don’t worry, don’t worry, people still love the guy,” and that’s gonna be enough. That’s the point of the New York Times story even though Carville and Greenberg’s poll says it ain’t even close to enough.

House panel probing Obama stimulus cash for MSNBC ads

A House panel is calling on the U.S. Department of Labor to turn over all records involving a half-million dollar contract funded through President Obama’s $831 billion stimulus program that paid for more than 100 commercials on MSNBC touting a “green jobs” initiative.

The contract with McNeely Pigott & Fox Public Relations LLC in 2009 resulted in more than 100 commercials on cable shows hosted by Rachel Maddow and Keith Olberman to raise awareness about the Job Corps program’s training in environmentally-friendly career areas.

But spending reports showed that no jobs were created through the contract. The Washington Times first reported on the contract earlier this month, quoting one taxpayer watchdog who questioned not only the lack of jobs but why the commercials aired only on MSNBC, considered the most liberal of the major cable news outlets.

Paul Backers Aided Disruption of Ryan’s Speech (They Helped Codepink Scumbags)

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Published on: August 31, 2012
Laura Mills, an activist with the women's anti-war group Code Pink, interrupted Representative Paul D. Ryan's speech on Wednesday at the Republican National Convention.
Damon Winter/The New York TimesLaura Mills, an activist with the women’s antiwar group CodePink, interrupted Representative Paul D. Ryan’s speech on Wednesday at the Republican National Convention.

 

The women’s antiwar group CodePink was behind the disruption of Representative Paul D. Ryan’s speech on Wednesday night, but it was in part a product of the Romney campaign’s continuing dispute with Ron Paul supporters.

“An angry Ron Paul person was like, here, take my pass,” said Laura Mills, the 21-year-old CodePink intern who was escorted out of the Tampa Bay Times Forum after interrupting Mr. Paul’s speech.

Ms. Mills and a more seasoned activist, Ann Wright, were just waiting for Mr. Ryan to say something about health care. When he did, they yelled, “Health care, not warfare” and “My body, my choice.” Ms. Mills unfurled a banner that read, “Vagina: Can’t Say It? Don’t Legislate It,” a reference to an abortion debate in Michigan when a female lawmaker was barred from speaking after referring to women’s genitals.

The protest was quickly drowned out by the crowd’s energetic chants of “U.S.A., U.S.A.”

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The China Bubble (Is China The Next Pets.Com?!)

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Published on: August 31, 2012

At the height of the dot-com bubble in 1999, the magic word for hyping a stock was “Internet.” Pets.com, one of many speculative dot-com companies, earned a gilded stock price of $11 per share in early 2000. Buoyed by an initial investment by Amazon.com, it ultimately raked in $300 million in early financing. Like many Internet companies in that era, however, it never earned a profit; when the bubble popped in late 2000, just months after Pets.com went public, the company announced its liquidation, driving shares down to 19 cents, a 98 percent loss. Today, the magic word for hyping stock could be “China.”

A China strategy remains the holy grail for global companies. While China’s growth has slowed from over 10 percent just two years ago to 7.6 percent in the second quarter of this year, executives still make their China strategy prominent in pitches to analysts and investors. Thirty-seven percent of companies surveyed from a range of industries consider China “critical to global strategy,” according to an Economist Intelligence Unit report from November that surveyed executives from 328 companies. Forty-six percent expect China to be their biggest market within 10 years.

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What’s Whiter Than the GOP? The Media!

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Published on: August 31, 2012

Ah, to be a member of Big Media when the white Republicans gather to nominate their white ticket for the White House. It’s like shooting white elephants in a white convention center, what with their unbearable whiteness of being — so “non-diverse,” as Big Media strenuously signal their audiences.

Gallup tells us Republicans are 87 percent white and Democrats are 63 percent white. But even when Republicans are not white — which occurs despite Big Media efforts to fool viewers (conservative websites observed that NBC failed to post speeches by non-white Republicans at its website, while MSNBC cut to its pundits on such non-white occasions) — they might as well be white. That’s because “white” is the media’s slam on the GOP, their hectoring, subtle-as-a-sledgehammer message: Republicans are too “white” to deserve any decent person’s vote. Perhaps veteran ABC and PBS political editor turned Yahoo! News Washington bureau chief David Chalian blurted out the storyline best: “(The Romneys) are happy to have a party with black people drowning.”

This, it turned out, was a race-bait too far. Chalian lost his job after his comment went viral. But who will take his place? Someone just like him. Probably someone who looks like him, too — and those dread, white Republicans.

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Mark Steyn: Racist dog whistles and the men who hear them

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Published on: August 31, 2012

American racism is starting to remind me of American alcoholism. At the founding of the republic, in the days when beer was thought of as “liquid bread” and a healthy nutritional breakfast, Americans drank about three-to-four times as much as they do now. Today the United States has a lower per capita rate of alcohol consumption than almost any other developed nation, but it has more alcoholism support groups than any other developed nation – around 164 groups per million people. France, which drinks about 50 percent more per capita than America, has one-twentieth the number of support groups. The French and Italians enjoy drinking, the English and Irish enjoy getting drunk, and Americans enjoy getting drunk on ever more absurd stigmatizatory excess. At Walmart they card you if you “appear to be under” – what is it up to now? 43? 57? And the citizenry take this as a compliment: Well-preserved grandmothers return from failed attempts to purchase a bottle of wine with gay cries of, “I was carded at Costco! They’ve made my weekend!”

And so it goes with American racism: The less there is, the more extravagantly the racism-awareness lobby patrols its beat. The Walmart carding clerks of the media are ever more alert to those who “appear to be” racist. On MSNBC, Chris Matthews declared this week that Republicans use “Chicago” as a racist code word. Not to be outdone, his colleague Lawrence O’Donnell pronounced “golf” a racist code word. When Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell observed that Obama was “working to earn a spot on the PGA tour,” O’Donnell brilliantly perceived that subliminally associating Obama with golf is racist, because the word “golf” is subliminally associated with “Tiger Woods,” and the word “Tiger” is not-so-subliminally associated with cocktail waitress Jamie Grubbs, nightclub hostess Rachel Uchitel, lingerie model Jamie Jungers, former porn star Holly Sampson, etc, etc. So by using the word “golf” you’re sending a racist dog whistle that Obama is a sex addict who reverses over fire hydrants.

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thumbShoving Match Between Chris Matthews’ Hecklers, MSNBC Producer Investigated at RNC (Video)

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Published on: August 31, 2012

thumbVideo: Anti-Obama Artist Debuts ‘Obamanation’ Interactive Painting

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Published on: August 31, 2012

Video: Delusional Ed Schultz Cries Racism Over Romney Speech

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Published on: August 31, 2012

Democrats Shaking in Their Boots

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Published on: August 31, 2012

The Republican National Convention started off as an anxiety-ridden, soggy, depressing mess on Monday morning. By Tuesday night, the Democratic Party and Barack Obama in particular had to be an anxiety-ridden, soggy, depressing mess.

The transition between Monday morning and Tuesday evening was stunning. The Republican Party went into the convention on a low note after Rep. Todd Akin, Missouri Senate candidate, suggested that women’s magic uteruses protect them from becoming pregnant via “legitimate rape,” enmeshing the GOP in a battle of demagoguery over abortion.

Meanwhile, the convention had a legitimate shot at cancellation; it seemed that the entire city was going to shut down for Hurricane Isaac. And controversies over Sarah Palin and Ron Paul not being granted featured speaking slots at the RNC seemed to be fragmenting the RNC base.

And then there was Tuesday night.

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Repeat illegal alien offender arrested near school (Deported 3 times!)

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Published on: August 31, 2012

A Mexican who has been deported three times was in federal custody Wednesday in Escondido on suspicion of fondling himself inside a vehicle while watching children walk to school.

Antonio Montoya-Senteno was spotted in the 1200 block of North Broadway about 7:20 a.m. and, based on witness reports, arrested at El Norte Parkway and Escondido Boulevard, Escondido police Lt. Chris Wynn said.

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Palin, Fox at odds in contract negotiations?

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Published on: August 31, 2012

One of the most curious developments at the Republican convention took place far away from the delegate floor. Two events appeared for a short time to be part of the same story: the announcement of the “mystery speaker,” and the sudden cancellation of Sarah Palin’s interviews on Fox News. Palin, the Republican Party’s previous VP nominee, would have provided some intriguing commentary on the night when her successor spoke, and so some — myself included — thought Palin’s spots must have been canceled because she had become a participant in this convention. When it became clear that Clint Eastwood had agreed to speak, it left many of us wondering exactly why Palin’s Fox appearances had been canceled at the time when she had the most value as a commentator.

New York Magazine reported yesterday that the cancellations were due to a power play in contract negotiations, and that Palin might find herself in search of a new platform:

Essentially, Palin and Fox are in the early stages of an elaborate contract negotiation. Palin earns roughly $1 million per year from Fox, making her the highest paid contributor at the network. Fox executives have been disappointed with her ratings; Palin has been disappointed by Fox’s decision to not give her top billing on bookings. According to sources, the relationship at times has gotten so bad that much communication has been conducted via Palin’s husband Todd. One thing is clear: It’s risky for her to push the envelope too far. Fox has been a central pillar of Palin’s national reach since quitting the governorship, and without the network’s platform, it’s unclear how she could maintain even her current, much-diminished level of visibility.

Palin’s Facebook outburst surely didn’t endear her to Roger Ailes, who prizes message discipline and loyalty among his troops.

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Odumbo: The Emperor With No Clothes

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Published on: August 31, 2012

The Emperor With No ClothesThe most salient characteristic of the Obama administration’s abject failure to put the American economy back to work has been their deafening silence on the issue in this campaign.

Barack Obama doesn’t talk about the economy’s painful weaknesses. Democrats in Congress are all but silent on the issue as if it doesn’t exist. His campaign ads ignore it altogether as if everything’s fine, asking voters to turn their attention to lesser issues. Issues that do not make the top 10 list of major concerns in voter surveys.

Across the Potomac River in Virginia, almost all of the Obama attack ads against Republican rival Mitt Romney are about abortion and contraception, hoping they will be able to woo enough women to vote for Obama on that single issue that will put this swing state into his electoral column.

In an election year when the president’s handling of the economy is the No. 1 complaint, high unemployment and the lack of good paying jobs is No. 2, and unfathomable budget deficits and a nearly $16 trillion debt are No. 3 and 4, Obama believes he can win a second term on abortion, Romney’s tax returns and bashing his successful career as a venture capital investor.

Apparently he thinks the American people are fools who will fall for that old sideshow carnival shell game where the con man distracts you long enough so that you do not see which walnut shell contains the nut.

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Limbaugh: Clint got under Obama’s skin

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Published on: August 31, 2012

Actor Clint Eastwood addresses the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla., on Aug. 30, 2012. (Associated Press)Hollywood may be bashing Clint Eastwood’s performance at the GOP convention, but Rush Limbaugh said Friday the reason is that he touched a nerve with leftist celebrities — and with the president himself.

Pointing to the photo the Obama camp tweeted after midnight showing the back of the president’s head above the office chair in the Oval Office, Mr. Limbaugh said that proves the White House was worried. And he wondered whether it was Mr. Obama himself.

“It must have gotten to him because he tweeted at 12:30,” Mr. Limbaugh said Friday on his radio program.

thumbMarco Rubio RNC 2012 Speech (Video)

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Published on: August 31, 2012

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